The unlimited voice plans are nice - and will really bring a change to the industry*... But am I the only one who rarely uses my cell phone for actually calling people?

Texting, Photos, Music and Wireless Internet are the winners for me.  I don't think texting can get too much better, what with the QWERTY Keyboard phones and all.  We could use some better cameras on our phones though - 2 and 3 MP?  Come on!  We've got 12 MP Digital Cameras that are smaller than my cell phone (Verizon's LG VX9900 EnV - God, I love this phone... I want a Voyager so bad though).  Right now, my EnV can only use a 2 Gig MicroSD card... it can't even use a 4 Gig since it has the old Firmware and the Verizon Store didn't want to upgrade it for me.  And the newer phones can hold 8 Gig cards - which is more than enough for music... Now, if the prices of the cards would go down (although I got my 1 Gig card for free after rebate, so I can't complain).

Internet Browsing, though, can use some work.  Did you know Checkoutblog.com doesn't even load on my cell?  Now that we're moving away from the "Mobile Web" type internet to true HTML Browsing, that should help - but I want to be able to access virtually any internet website from my phone... *THAT* is the innovation I'm looking for in a cell phone.

I mean, seriously, I talk about 100 mins/month on my cell phone.  I'm sure there are people thrilled about unlimited calling, but I'm just not one of them.

*Probably the #1 Industry-wide change I'm looking forward to because of the "unlimited voice plans" is the end to the awful Alltel/Chad commericals.  Seriously Alltel, tell me why your network is better without bashing everyone else.  There's no need to turn it into a mudslinging political campaign.  And while you're at it, work on your customer service.  I shouldn't have to wait on hold for 30 mins to talk to a rep in order to add a feature.

Russell:

Thomas Kuhn would roll over in his grave if he knew you were comparing cell phone minute plans to gravity and the theory of relativity.

Jonathan,

I am sure Mr. Kuhn is no more rolling over in his grave because I used his phrase and concept to describe a tremendous change in the wireless phone industry, than Mr. Einstein is rolling in his when his most famous theory is used as a play on words to introduce a website post.

Russell:

Touche [Insert accent mark over the e].  Nevertheless, the difference between me and you here is that you weren't joking.

Sweet.  Now, let's work on getting some of the Wireless Internet services down in price.  $60/month is just too much Verizon Wireless...

To clarify, Kuhn's paradigm shift only works if people adopt the new paradigm.   In the case of the $99 all included Sprint plan, there is potential.  Anything to get away from TXT message charges more expensive than gold.

A good deal for my family would be rollover minutes, and then unlimited text (and even web) for $50.  We seldom use the voice minutes, but would text more if our provider didn't have such a high cost per message (which, by the way, is nearly free because it uses the some space as the voice.)

Hmm... maybe I should go back and re-read Kuhn through the Verizon lens. :)  Great writing, Russell.  

I am afraid to say that the unlimited plans are going to prove to be a marketing bust.  According to CTIA, the average revenue (net of taxes) per subscriber line is about $55.

$99 plans are well into the heavy user / top tier of the customer base and does zero for probably 80% of the users.

Let's be blunt:  how many Walmart customers walk out with a $99 plan, which typically comes to $120 a month after taxes etc. are added?

As of this minute, I am typing this document from a third-party reseller that is offering EVDO-Rev. A data, unlimited, roaming in USA included, for $50 a month, flat rate, no contract, which I need to pay $100 for the modem that is 'mine' after 12 months.

My voice service is via T-Mobile, which has a prepaid program that gives you 1,000 minutes and a phone number that do not expire for 1 year.

The face value of the $100 / 1,000 minutes card is $100, but it is sharply discounted at your competitor Target, who runs a deal that sells the card with a new phone for $88 (the phone in turn has some time in it), giving a effective rate of well below 8.8 cents a minute plus local taxes.

Online, I regularly buy $100 calling cards for $92 to $93, with no taxes.

So depending on how you do your calculation, it is a maximum of 9.3 cents a minute, flat rate, or a lot less than that if you bought the phone / $100 card special and just sold the phone to someone privately.

Now, I don't expect Walmart to match the sales tax deal for an online sale, but surely Walmart can come up with a private label deal with a desperate wireless carrier that at least matches this deal.

Sprint is known to be desperate and will probably wholesale minutes to a Walmart private label for well under 4 cents a minute, though AT&T / T-Mobile is a better deal because you can use generic unlocked GSM phones.

BTW, I did exhaustive analysis of a whole bunch of friends who have contracts and it turned out that for all but the heaviest users (2,000 minutes a month or more) --- who are better off to go the unlimited route --- the 9.3 cents a minute FLAT rate is actually a better deal.

Remember, the quoted rate per minute in a plan is only good if you hit the exact maximum allowed.  If you go over, it us usually a lot more expensive.

The flat rate gives certainty, and furthermore, with a clear awareness of costs, users divert their unnecessary (ie calls made at home) to VoIP, which is 1 cent per minute off Yahoo.

If any of the buyers want to contact me about this.. .feel free!

I am afraid to say that the unlimited plans are going to prove to be a marketing bust.  According to CTIA, the average revenue (net of taxes) per subscriber line is about $55.

$99 plans are well into the heavy user / top tier of the customer base and does zero for probably 80% of the users.

Let's be blunt:  how many Walmart customers walk out with a $99 plan, which typically comes to $120 a month after taxes etc. are added?

As of this minute, I am typing this document from a third-party reseller that is offering EVDO-Rev. A data, unlimited, roaming in USA included, for $50 a month, flat rate, no contract, which I need to pay $100 for the modem that is 'mine' after 12 months.

My voice service is via T-Mobile, which has a prepaid program that gives you 1,000 minutes and a phone number that do not expire for 1 year.

The face value of the $100 / 1,000 minutes card is $100, but it is sharply discounted at your competitor Target, who runs a deal that sells the card with a new phone for $88 (the phone in turn has some time in it), giving a effective rate of well below 8.8 cents a minute plus local taxes.

Online, I regularly buy $100 calling cards for $92 to $93, with no taxes.

So depending on how you do your calculation, it is a maximum of 9.3 cents a minute, flat rate, or a lot less than that if you bought the phone / $100 card special and just sold the phone to someone privately.

Now, I don't expect Walmart to match the sales tax deal for an online sale, but surely Walmart can come up with a private label deal with a desperate wireless carrier that at least matches this deal.

Sprint is known to be desperate and will probably wholesale minutes to a Walmart private label for well under 4 cents a minute, though AT&T / T-Mobile is a better deal because you can use generic unlocked GSM phones.

BTW, I did exhaustive analysis of a whole bunch of friends who have contracts and it turned out that for all but the heaviest users (2,000 minutes a month or more) --- who are better off to go the unlimited route --- the 9.3 cents a minute FLAT rate is actually a better deal.

Remember, the quoted rate per minute in a plan is only good if you hit the exact maximum allowed.  If you go over, it us usually a lot more expensive.

The flat rate gives certainty, and furthermore, with a clear awareness of costs, users divert their unnecessary (ie calls made at home) to VoIP, which is 1 cent per minute off Yahoo.

If any of the buyers want to contact me about this.. .feel free!

I have a couple comments to respond to, I guess.

First...Jacob, my understanding of Kuhn would be simply that the paradigm shift needs to be adopted by the individuals that develop the rules the rest of us "play by."  Once "scientists" (in our case wireless executives) adopt the new system they now begin the process of "normal science" or figuring out how things work within the new system.  Thus, I believe we will begin to see each carrier tinker with the offer to see what will impact sales and customer satisfaction. 

Now that is enough stretching Thomas Kuhn's work to fit something he never meant for it to explain.

AB -- I agree with you that the $99 rate will not siginificantly change most Americans' usage or bills.  However, there is a fairly sizeable number of "heavy" users that will be able to pay less than they are today.  The real benefit is that carriers are offering "all-you-can-eat" plans and this can eventually lead to better deals for the money you spend today.

Just as these new plans are not for everyone, neither are contract phones or service.  I am glad you found the T-Mobile service that best fits your needs, this is why there are many options.  Some customers like the fact they can get by with spending $20 every other month and the flexibility of prepaid, just as some like the security of a postpaid plan.

Thanks for the comments and I am sure your friends love the fact you are looking out for them.

Thanks for the comment, Russell.

What I am saying is that Buyers need to be far more proactive in understanding customer needs and then finding a supplier who will deliver those needs --- rather than to wait for them to come up with a product that they think is a good idea.

Look at your prepaid section --- most of the phones sold there are not terribly good deals except for people who use the phone very little.  Furthermore, many of them have gimmmicks and 'gotchas' like $1 per day if you get any calls at all... etc.

It takes a lot of work to wade through the different deals on your prepaids to find out which one is really a good deal.  Things like 90 day expiry of phone number and minutes (thus enforcing a minimum level of usage/fee) make no sense when handsets could be bought at $20 at the manufacturers level and hence, do not need much, if any, subsidy.

That is the business model from 4 years ago, when prepaid was priced above contract phones and both products shared the same 'gotchas'.

Today, you can find prepaid phones that work out to be cheaper than contract even for moderate use (500 to 600 minutes) which is the majority of users.

The carriers, throught their asinine contracts, basically stiff consumers with large fees (overage, roaming, you name it) and then expect customers to come begging them when they got unexpectedly hit with a bill in the thousands of dollars.  The price of 'fixing' the problem is another 2 year contract extension.

Look at your Walmart clientel --- and it doesn't take a genius to realize that for 65+% of your customers, an unexpected bill of that size is a financial disaster that often mean it goes unpaid (and the phone shut down). 

How many of your clients cannot walk out with a contract phone because they can't pass the credit check without the demand for a large deposit?  How much store resources (shelf space, staff time) is spent on 'selling' contract phones to customers that do not qualify and walk out empty handed?

So I am afraid I don't understand how a contract phone offers the customer 'security'?   What it offers is a stiff fixed sum to be paid each month regardless of whether the phone is used, and then, a 'gotcha' rate when you exceed it or do anything outside of the 'plan'.   It is a bad deal for customers, period. 

Look - I use to spend hours haggling with customer service about biling problems, hidden charges, etc.

Since moving to prepaid with T-Mobile - which has a simple, easy to understand plan that is somewhat pricier than many (until you realize it is no gimmicks), I have spent ZERO time complaining.  As for security... I always carry an extra charge card 'ready to go' and I never run out of minutes.

What I am saying is, Walmart Buyers have a lot of buying power.  That power can be used constructively to help your customers get a better deal from the industry and also to help you make a good profit margin.

Suggestion:  The T-Mobile deal is one of the best in the industry in terms of simplicity, costs, customer service, etc. and they will even transfer your number from your existing carrier to you.

It beats the heck out of 90% of your wireless offerings even if you paid the rack price (10 cents a minute) for it.

Go negotiate a like deal with a major carrier of your choice.  Private label it and see how it works.

Here are some suggested parameters for the deal:

A) Use GSM so it can use any unlocked handset (and the Private Label get out of the handset subsidy business).  You can sell unlocked GSM phones, both new and reconditioned, that can be used with ANY carrier including AT&T, T-Mobile, etc.  Reconditioned handsets can often be sold for $20 and still give you a good margin.

B) Have a range of mid range and high end unlocked GSM phones available for sale online so customers can really choose without burdening the retailer with display space, inventory, etc.  If you want to know how to do this, see Tigerdirect.com.

C) Have a deal for 1,000 minutes + phone number that do not expire for at least a year at a competitive prices.  i.e. $70, with successive recharges cheaper and cheaper.  Without handset subsidies, the need for much retail space, you can do this.  T-Mobile is already doing something like this with your competitor Target.

D) Have 'add ons' like text messaging available at similarly low prices (i.e. $10 unlimited for a month.)

E) Back this up with excellent customer service (like T-Mobile) and you got a winner.

Go for it!

AB,

Thanks for your comments and passion.  It is clear you have found a solution that works for you with T-Mobile.  I will say that I believe we try very hard to deliver better customer solutions on phones and services that are consistently the best values in the industry (not just for a single week).  Thanks for your ideas on improving the assortment and offerings.